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Shopify Still Stands Tall — But Does the Price Match the Story?
Shopify has become one of those stocks that every Canadian retail investor has an opinion on. It’s the Ottawa-born company that turned a snowboard shop’s frustrating online experience into a platform powering millions of merchants worldwide. As of late April 2026, SHOP trades on both the TSX and the NYSE, which means Canadian investors can hold it in a TFSA or RRSP in either CAD or USD. But the real question isn’t whether Shopify is a great company — it’s whether the current price already reflects everything that’s great about it.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed Canadian financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
What’s Going On With SHOP Right Now
Shopify has had a volatile stretch heading into spring 2026. After a punishing correction through much of 2022 and 2023, the stock clawed back significant ground in 2024 and early 2025, riding a broader recovery in growth and tech names. More recently, SHOP has settled into a “hold” posture for many analysts — meaning the bull case is largely understood and priced in, but meaningful downside risks exist too.
The company shed its logistics division (Shopify Fulfillment Network, later sold to Flexport) back in 2023, which was a significant strategic pivot. That decision freed up capital and management focus for the core platform, and the market rewarded it. Since then, Shopify has leaned hard into merchant solutions — payment processing through Shopify Payments, capital lending through Shopify Capital, and international expansion.
Revenue growth has continued, though at a more measured pace than the pandemic-era surge. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) — the total value of goods sold through Shopify-powered stores — remains a key metric to watch. Shopify takes a cut of that GMV through payment processing and subscriptions, so GMV growth is essentially a proxy for the company’s revenue trajectory.
What This Means for Canadian Retail Investors
SHOP is a particularly interesting stock for Canadians because of where it trades and how it fits into registered accounts.
TSX vs. NYSE — Which Should You Use?
SHOP trades on both the Toronto Stock Exchange (ticker: SHOP) and the New York Stock Exchange (also SHOP, priced in USD). If you hold it on the TSX inside a TFSA, you avoid U.S. withholding tax on dividends — though Shopify doesn’t currently pay a dividend, so that point is moot for now. The more relevant consideration is currency. Buying on the TSX means you’re transacting in Canadian dollars, but the underlying business generates most of its revenue in USD. That creates a natural currency exposure either way.
Platforms like Wealthsimple Trade and Questrade both support SHOP on either exchange. Questrade users can use Norbert’s Gambit to convert CAD to USD at a lower cost before buying the NYSE-listed shares, which reduces the currency conversion spread. If you’re using Wealthsimple, the 1.5% foreign exchange fee on USD trades can add up on a position this size, so buying on the TSX in CAD may be simpler.
Registered Account Fit
Because Shopify pays no dividend and is a growth-oriented holding, it generally fits well in a TFSA, where capital gains accumulate tax-free. Inside an RRSP, capital gains are also sheltered from tax until withdrawal, but RRSP withdrawals are taxed as income — meaning a massive gain realized inside an RRSP eventually faces marginal tax rates. For high-growth names like SHOP, many Canadian investors prefer the TFSA structure for that reason. If you’ve already maxed your TFSA, the RRSP is still better than a taxable account for sheltering gains.
Breaking Down the Business: Where Shopify Makes Its Money
Understanding what Shopify actually sells is useful before forming any view on the stock’s valuation.
- Subscription Solutions: Monthly or annual fees from merchants using the platform. This is the more predictable, recurring revenue stream. Different plan tiers — Basic, Shopify, Advanced, and the enterprise-level Shopify Plus — serve different merchant sizes.
- Merchant Solutions: This segment has grown to dwarf subscriptions. It includes Shopify Payments (payment processing fees), Shopify Capital (small business lending), Shopify Markets (international selling tools), and other add-ons. Because these revenues scale with merchant sales volume, they rise and fall with overall consumer spending.
- Shopify Plus: The enterprise tier continues to be a growth driver. Larger brands migrating to Shopify Plus from legacy platforms represent a meaningful revenue expansion opportunity.
One thing worth noting: Shopify’s gross margins on merchant solutions are lower than on subscriptions, because payment processing is inherently a thinner-margin business. As merchant solutions become a larger share of revenue, overall margins face structural pressure. The company has offset this somewhat through operating leverage — keeping headcount growth in check after the 2022-era layoffs — but it’s a tension worth understanding.
Valuation: The Honest Conversation
This is where the “hold” thesis gets uncomfortable. Shopify is not cheap by conventional metrics. The stock has historically traded at price-to-sales ratios that would make a value investor’s eyes water. Even after the correction from its 2021 highs, SHOP still commands a significant growth premium.
The bull case rests on continued GMV growth, further penetration of Shopify Payments internationally, and the long-term TAM (total addressable market) of global e-commerce. The bear case is that growth is slowing from pandemic-era rates, competition from platforms like WooCommerce, BigCommerce, and increasingly Amazon’s own merchant tools remains real, and a high valuation multiple leaves little room for disappointment.
In a higher-for-longer interest rate environment — which Canada has experienced through much of the post-pandemic period — growth stocks with long-duration earnings face additional valuation headwinds. When the Bank of Canada cuts rates, that can be a tailwind for SHOP. When rates stay elevated or rise, the discount rate on future earnings climbs, and the valuation comes under pressure.
Educational Note: What Is a “Hold” Rating, Really?
If you follow analyst coverage on SHOP, you’ll see ratings like Buy, Hold, Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform scattered across research notes. It’s worth knowing what “Hold” actually signals.
A Hold rating typically means an analyst believes the stock will perform roughly in line with the broader market over their target horizon — often 12 months. It doesn’t mean “sell everything,” but it also doesn’t mean “this is a great time to add.” For many investors, a Hold on a stock they already own is a signal to stay the course and reassess on the next earnings report. For someone considering a new position, a Hold suggests waiting for a better entry point or a catalyst that changes the thesis.
Analyst price targets and ratings carry their own biases — investment banks that do business with Shopify have incentive structures that can influence their research. Reading the underlying reasoning of a rating is more useful than the label alone.
What to Watch Going Forward
If you own SHOP or are watching it, here are the key data points worth tracking:
- Quarterly GMV growth rate — Is it accelerating, decelerating, or holding steady?
- Merchant solutions attach rate — Are more merchants adopting Shopify Payments and Capital?
- Shopify Plus merchant count — Enterprise growth signals health of the upper end of the market.
- Operating leverage — Is the company growing revenue faster than operating expenses?
- Bank of Canada and Fed rate decisions — Interest rate direction affects growth stock valuations materially.
- USD/CAD exchange rate — Affects reported Canadian-dollar returns for TSX holders.
A Balanced Perspective
Shopify is a genuinely impressive Canadian business — one of the few TSX names with real global scale. But impressive businesses and impressive investments aren’t always the same thing at the same time. The current hold consensus reflects a stock where the story is well known and the price already reflects a lot of optimism. Watch the fundamentals, know what you own, and don’t size any single position beyond what you’d be comfortable seeing cut in half.
Nothing in this article constitutes financial advice. NorthMarkets is a financial education publisher. Consult a licensed Canadian financial advisor or portfolio manager before making investment decisions.